Large-scale circulation patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution. A further favorable feature for the continued development of the storm was cyclonic wind shear present between the 850-hPa (just above the interior plateau of southern Africa) and 700-hPa levels over the region (not shown). 6c) as ex-Eline and the heat low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the South African coast (Fig. Shading denotes values less than or equal to 240 W m−2 or areas where convection is likely, (a)–(h) Zonal wind (contour interval 5 m s−1) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for various days during 18–28 Feb. Easterly winds (westward steering current) are shaded, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1500 UTC 25 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 25 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 28 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 28 Feb, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 29 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 29 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1200 UTC 1 Mar; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 1 Mar, Moisture fluxes at the 850-hPa level during the following pentads: (a) 16–20 Feb, (b) 21–25 Feb, (c) 26 Feb–1 Mar 2000. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. At 0600 UTC 21 February, a storm warning was issued along with advice that Eline might intensify steadily during the next day. margin: 0; For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … 0000007034 00000 n Such underestimations of heavy rain by the Eta model, particularly near the escarpment, are common; for example, similar errors occurred for the early February 2000 tropical low case (Dyson and van Heerden 2001) and for a previous flooding event in 1996 (De Coning et al. EDITORIAL COMMENT : Cyclone Idai: Wake-up call to climate … Most work on SWIO TCs has been published in government internal reports (e.g., South African Weather Service, Mauritius Meteorological Services), and these are reviewed in van Heerden and Taljaard (1998). 7) stretching northwest–southeast across southern Africa. The warning for heavy rain was extended to northeastern South Africa at 1400 UTC. width: 100%; U.K. Met. .ajtmh_container { Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. The figure is reproduced courtesy of Mauritius Meteorological Services, which renamed the storm Eline after it crossed 90°E; prior to this it was identified as Tropical Storm Leon, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 22 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 22 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 23 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 23 Feb. (a)–(f) Daily averaged geopotential height (contour interval 1.5 dam) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for 18–24 Feb. Shading denotes values in the range 579–585 dam so as to highlight Tropical Cyclone Eline. Jury, M. R., , and Pathack B. , 1991: A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. Note that UKMO statistics are computed over the full ocean track of the storm (4–23 February) whereas the La Réunion results are only for 8–21 February (24-h forecast) or 8–19 February (48-h forecast). (c) SST anomalies for Feb 2000. Jury, M. R., 1993: A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. The tropical storm, named Cyclone … In fact, Eline seems to have followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. Jury, M. R., , Pathack B. , , and Parker B. , 1999: Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. Meteor. U.K. Met. 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